Mark Llewellyn returns to Nine as creative director for news and current affairs

Not into sport – and not into the ‘flat earth society” at 2GB – guess it’s back to the ABC for the best talk.

Commercial radio is a business and bold ideas in business models carries its risks and rewards. The ‘Talking Lifestyle’ (‘TL’) was a bold move, but unfortunately only contributed 7% of MML’s turnover. The ‘Macquarie Sports Radio’ (‘MSR’) is another bold move. Remember the formula from finance 101, the higher the risk the higher the payoff. It does not mean a guaranteed payoff. I have analysed the ratings for 2UE, and the Magic-branded stations in Melbourne and Brisbane and came to the conclusions:

Talk(format1) to Talk (format2), eg 2UE from news to ‘TL’, the ratings fell significantly but stabilised at 3.5%. When there was a change in the 1980s from talk (news) to music, ratings dropped. when it went from music to a highly segmented networked CBC, it was a flop. However when it went to the broad 3-4 shifts, the ratings resumed to record levels.
The MSR is another talk format. It’s format history is talk(news) to talk(‘TL’) to talk (‘MSR’). For Sydney I predict that it may stabilise around 2 (gut feel) to 3. Reason: I believe however the overnight program from the UK is ‘cheap and nasty’ and not a good lead in for the breakfast. Have a local show, a break from sport with music, sport and talkback. In fact if you listen to 2KY’s (Sky) extra channels on DAB+, there is a similar overnight program from the UK. I don’t believe it rates on the DAB ratings.

For Melbourne and Brisbane, MSR may not succeed because the public have been so used to 4BH and 3EE as music stations for a very long time. The change from music to talk has a record of being a flop. You only need to look at 3MP (music) to 1377 MTR (talk), it flopped even with the very best news talk presenters who rate quite well on 2GB. Therefore I cannot foresee MSR rating in the Brisbane and Melbourne markets.

That’s unless MML promote these MSR stations heavily on billboards, digital advertising on digital newspapers and TV rather than rely on cross promotion on 4BC, 3AW and 2GB or word-of-mouth (‘wom’)(that’s if ‘wom’ exists) to create audience awareness, then MSR is doomed especially in the Melbourne and Brisbane markets. The 4BH and 3EE stations would have a greater return if they played automated music. The top rating stations in Brisbane are music stations. It is not unheard of that an AM music station topped the ratings. For example, in the 1980s, 2CH’s elevator music format was number one in Sydney despite 2DAY and 2MMM being established for six years. With DAB, the stations 4BH and 3EE, if they haven’t done yet, should increase its bitrate to at least 96kbs to 128kbs. Many of the main stations broadcast at 48kbs and the high frequency sounds metallic.

In recent times, the dynamics of sports broadcasting has changed. It is that other stations broadcasting sports for a few hours each day which may impact on MSR’s ratings. In Sydney alone, MSR and 2GB have other stations to compete in regards to sport. These sports segments aren’t broadcast continually like MSR, but may impact on MSR’s ratings. This includes 2SM’s 1500-1800 Mon-Fri sports, and weekend sports broadcasts of both NRL and AFL matches. 2MMM have sport talk breakfast show (‘Grill Team’), and broadcast of NRL matches. Let’s not forget ABC(702 2BL and Grandstand on DAB) broadcasts of sports matches via the ‘Grandstand’ brand, 2KY (Sky’s) ‘Big Breakfast’ and ABC(Newsradio) broadcast of AFL.

A further comment on the ratings. The maximum audience total is 100%. Take Sydney’s ratings (Gfk). For those stations that participate in the ratings, the total audience share is about 86%. Take any ratings survey, and the audience share will be no more than 86%. One asks what are the other 14% listening to? 2SM, community radio, Spotify, other internet subscription services, spoken word podcasts, music on mp3 players? Will any radio apart from taking audience share from other ratings participants take back some of the 14%? That is will audience share be 88% or 90% instead of 86%.

That is something to see in the next few ratings surveys rather than the first rating survey.

A further note on radical changes in radio formats. In the early 1960s, there have been radical changes in radio formats. 2UE, 2GB and 2UW dropped game shows and serials for music, talk, sport, news and weather. This was the same time that the local suburban cinema lost patronage. For radio and cinema the factor is TV. It required radio stations to radically change its formats. What is happening with TL or MSR or any radical change in format, the principles of changing formats in the 1960s does not apply now.

For those lamenting 2UE’s departure from a major news talk format, if you “don’t want to miss a thing” should consider other talk formats. We’re replete with other talk formats. Apart from the ‘off’ switch, there is the tuner control. Have you considered “Radio National” (‘RN’) where there are programs discussing politics and economics. Mon-Fri with Fran Kelly, Saturday with Geraldine Doogue and Sunday with Hugh Riminton. There is also the drive program with Patricia Karvelas and The Hon Amanda Vanstone. There are lots of other interesting shows on religion “God Forbid” and “The Religion and Ethics Report” and the “The Spirit of Things”. “Best Practice” talks about the workplace and leadership. Then there is ABC NewsRadio where there is rolling news. For those with a conservative bent, you have 2SM and its associated networked stations.

In other words, you may have lost 2UE, but there are other programs which talk about the issues that matter most to people, politics, economics, religion and work. You can listen to RN, NewsRadio and 2SM. If you like the newspapers and magazines read to you, there’s the RPH network. So we are not short of news talk programs.

Regards
Anthony of exciting Belfield

Eddie McGuire