SMH and Age end relationship with polling company Ipsos after election blindside
Nine’s newspapers have ended their relationship with polling company Ipsos after the election delivered a radically different result to that anticipated by the pre-election polling.
Mumbrella understands Nine News’ separate agreement with Galaxy Research is not affected by the decision made by The Age’s and Sydney Morning Herald’s management.
Ipsos was consistently polling a Labor win prior to last weekend’s result, with the final poll published on Friday showing a national two party vote of 51-49 for Labor.
Can someone explain to me why statistics is broken?
This wasn’t one poll. This was continued polling all delivering a consistent result.
So what part of the algorithm for statistical extrapolation needs updating?
I’m sure more will come out but there’s some combination of:
1) Fewer and fewer people have landlines and those that do are a small range of demographics
2) Swings that aren’t uniform
3) Small parties causing havoc with the results
I’d imagine the weaker primary vote of major parties is a factor since it amplifies the volatility from place to place. Two party preferred aggregates breakdown the more the primary vote is split.
No doubt however that landlines are a factor as is the tendency with digital phones to reject unknown callers.
Parties focus on boots on the ground and social media, which says it all really.
For the life of me I cannot remember the name of the company, however they monitor social media posts and correctly called the election.
Sounds like a convenient excuse/cover for cost cutting…..