Agency bosses disagree on 2012 media market forecasts

Media agency bosses are differing notably in their predictions for how the Australian media market will fare this year – with forecasts ranging from 0.8% to 5% growth.

Johns

The more cautious of four agency bosses Mumbrella spoke to is Ikon Communications CEO Dan Johns, who reckons that the year ahead “is looking flat”.

“There is a lot of caution because of nervous consumers,” he said, predicting that the market will grow by just 0.8% in 2012. “And that might be enthusiastic.”

Hack

PHD managing director Toby Hack is more bullish. “The Olympics will bring a lot of consumer confidence, so advertisers will be looking to make the most of increased opportunities,” he said. “Consumer engagement will be high.”

Hack predicts the market will grow by 5%.

Gaines

Maxus boss David Gaines is similarly optimistic. He said the “hangover” year of 2011 will be succeeded by a year of “clarity and positivity”.

“Europe still keeps everyone slightly hesitant financially. But there seems to be a real enthusiasm for what needs to be done and how to do it,” he said.

Gaines forecasts 3.5% growth. “This figure is relatively low due to what we see being a weak first quarter. Obviously the chance of an early election and that big sporting event will boost the second half.”

Preston

Match boss John Preston predicts just 1-2% market growth.

“Next year will be patchy – if you take out the two weeks of the Olympics and all the hype surrounding that,” he said.

“I’d be happy to be proven wrong, but clients will maintain a cautious outlook for this year.”