Global industry to surpass US$1 trillion ad revenue: GroupM forecast
The industry will surpass US$1 trillion in total revenue globally for the first time in 2024, according to GroupM’s annual End-of-Year Global Advertising Forecast.
Published on Monday, the report analyses advertising investments over the last 12 months and shares projections for the new year and beyond.
It found that strong performance of the largest sellers of advertising and increased digital expansion have bolstered growth in global advertising investment to 9.5% this year, which means the industry is expected to surpass the US$1 trillion mark (excluding US political advertising). It will grow another 7.7% in 2025 to reach US$1.1 trillion.
Locally, overall ad revenue at the end of the year will be up at 2.2% to AU$25.2 billion in 2024, with an expected growth of 3.7% in 2025, pushed by the influx of federal election spending.
In Australian internet advertising is projected to grow by 5.1% to AU$18.1 billion – representing 71.7% of the total market in 2024.
Pure-play advertising remains the strongest channel globally, and is estimated to grow 12.4% in 2024, before making up 72.9% of total advertising in 2025.
Retail media proves to remain strong both globally and locally, with estimates it will reach US$176.9 billion globally, surpassing total TV revenue – including streaming – for the first time. In Australia, it is forecast to grow 26.5$ in 2024 and 28.1% in 2025.
Also locally, total TV is expected to decline -8.2% in 2024, and -3.5% in 2025, however, GroupM said it will stabilise in 2026/2027, halting the major downward trend. While linear TV declines, it will be tempered by the growth of video on demand, which is forecast to remain healthy at 15.3%.
Out-of-home advertising has maintained its share in the global industry, largely due to the success of its digital counterpart, DOOH, which is predicted to account for 42% of total out-of-home revenue in 2025.
GroupM has forecast Australian out-of-home will see a total 7.3% growth in 2024, reaching AU$1.2 billion, with a further 5.4% increase expected in 2025.
Both globally and locally, audio revenue will remain flat – in Australia it sits at AU$1.24 billion in 2024, but is projected to head back into growth in 2025, with a rise of 1.3%.
GroupM has forecast cinema in Australia will grow 2.6% in 2024, pushed by end-of-year releases including Wicked, Gladiator II, and Moana 2, to AU$117 million.
Finally, GroupM predicts print advertising will continue to decline globally, due to increasing digitisation and the influence of AI.
“Despite the ongoing cost-of-living crisis dominating headlines, the Australian ad market remains resilient, though minimal growth projected in 2024 reflects continued caution,” said Melissa Hey, chief investment officer at GroupM ANZ.
“While consumers are growing more optimistic about the broader economic outlook, this sentiment may not fully translate to increased ad spending in the short term. Tax cuts implemented in July 2024, combined with energy relief measures, could boost consumer spending and reignite inflationary pressures.
“The outlook hinges on a potential interest rate cut in the first half of 2025. These economic factors, along with federal election ad spending, will be crucial for sustaining growth momentum in the coming year,” she concluded.
Overall, all top ten advertising markets – US, China, UK, Japan, Germany, France, Canada, Brazil, India, Australia – are forecast for growth, to varying degrees.
Total ad revenue for the two largest spenders – US and China – is expected to grow 9% to US$379 billion and 12.5% to US$204.5 billion respectively.
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