Single Trump post could swing ‘distrust election’: Roy Morgan
A single tweet from US President Donald Trump could change the course of this weekend’s federal election, according to grim voter sentiment analysis from pollsters Roy Morgan.
Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine made the warning about the Trump wildcard lobbing in the final week of the election campaign in a webinar presentation on Tuesday afternoon.
Click to enlarge (Roy Morgan)
The warning came just before news Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney secured victory in his nation’s federal election, a result commentators attributed at least in part to Trump’s interventions.
The Roy Morgan presentation painted a bleak picture for the Coalition as it tries to unseat the Labor government, with opposition leader Peter Dutton recording the highest net distrust scores. Levine said “voters today make decisions based on avoiding risk, not seeking inspiration” and labelled the vote “Australia’s first distrust election”.
According to Roy Morgan, net distrust – active distrust minus active trust – is at all-time highs for the government, economy and individual politicians like Dutton and PM Anthony Albanese.
In terms of traditional polls, Labor is clearly in the lead: primary voting intentions see both major parties level, but Labor picks up more preferences.
Despite Labor’s advantage, Levine said the outcome of Saturday’s election is by no means settled.
“In every election, state or federal, I look for wildcards – that thing from left field no one saw coming,” Levine said. “I found more than a million voters who could change the game.”
Those 1.2 million people are “the disenfranchised”: unhappy people who feel they “constantly get a raw deal”. Roy Morgan data shows their numbers doubling over five years.
Click to enlarge (Roy Morgan)
“In a close race, this cohort has the power to swing key seats. Their distrust makes them unpredictable and politically combustible.”
According to Levine, the most likely ignition source for that combustible cohort is a tweet from President Trump in the next three days.
“What if in the final week Donald Trump enters the frame?” she said. “A social media post praising Peter Dutton’s nuclear plan, flooding the news cycle? A video endorsement rallying the million disenfranchised voters and forcing both leaders to respond? Or a provocative comment that AUKUS is dead?”
Levine noted that even a supportive comment – for either Albanese or Dutton – could “upend the final week”.
“He doesn’t need to mean it, he just needs to say it, and suddenly the election outcome changes.”
The two politicians with the highest net trust scores in Australia are independent senators David Pocock (ACT) and Jacquie Lambie (Tasmania).
Related Content
Michele, I take your point, but I am not so sure that there will be a big enough swing in the remaining time. With 18.098m registered, and 4.03m have already voted (22%) with three days remaining I doubt that Trump’s trumpeting will have any significant impact.