‘Traditional media owners to struggle’ amid more economic uncertainty
Global advertising revenues are set to rise 4.9% this year, however traditional media owners across the likes of TV, radio and publishing will not be the beneficiaries, according to new forecasts.
Magna’s latest Global Ad Forecast report now predicts the advertising market will reach US$979 billion in 2025 (A$1.5 trillion), an increase of 4.9% on 2024’s figures. Australia’s market is expected to grow by 5% ,the June update said, with the wider APAC region forecast to be up 4.5%.
Economic uncertainty, however, means the advertising revenues of traditional media owners are expected to erode by 3.2% to US$261 billion. Television ad sales are projected to decline by 5% globally, publishing by 6%, and radio by 1%, while out-of-home and cinema will be up by 5%, the report said.
The year-on-year global fall for traditional media owners can be somewhat explained by the US Election and the 2024 Olympics, both of which boosted media spend at the time. Even with these factors removed in 2025, however, ‘digital pure players’ (DPPs) are forecast to increase their ad sales by 8% to US$709 billion, taking their share of total ad sales to 73%. Search and retail media ads, meanwhile, will rise 8% to US$359 billion, according to Magna.
Magna noted that in addition to the long-term organic growth factors assisting DPPs, the sector will also benefit from the industry’s tendency to redirect marketing budgets towards “performance” lower-funnel channels during downturns and “periods of low visibility”.
The report noted: “This may contribute to the resilience of digital media and the vulnerability of traditional media this year. However, Magna believes that most marketers will avoid repeating the over-drastic cuts seen during COVID and will maintain a balanced marketing and media mix to address consumer anxiety.”
Elsewhere, the report framed ad-supported streaming as a success, noting that a majority of new subscribers are choosing the more affordable plans, which come with “limited ads”. Magna estimated that premium long-form streaming ad revenues now represent 15% of total long-form video advertising revenue worldwide, accounting for US$23 billion of the US$153 billion market.
Social media ad sales are also set to grow by 11% to US$239 billion, and short-form pure-play video platforms (such as Youtube and Twitch) will expand by 7% to US$80 billion. In the APAC region in particular, Magna said US$7 billion of ‘new money’ will be injected into the economy, as social media ad spend rises by 9% in the region.
Leigh Terry, CEO of IPG Mediabrands APAC, said: “The continued resilience and dynamism of the APAC advertising economy in 2024, growing by nearly 8%, reinforces the region’s strategic importance for global brands.
“As digital platforms increasingly become the primary gateway to consumers, especially in mobile-first markets, advertisers must evolve their strategies to meet where attention is shifting. While the outlook for 2025 is tempered by macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, the underlying fundamentals remain strong. APAC’s digital transformation is far from complete, and for brands willing to invest smartly, the region still offers outsized growth opportunities.”
Paul Waller, chief investment officer for APAC, added: “With fewer cyclical events in 2025, the projected global growth of 4.9% in 2025 is still noteworthy. As Magna reports, digital continues to be the engine of expansion and in APAC will represent 82% of total budgets in by 2029.
“Powered by mobile-first consumers and retail media innovation, especially in China, strategic allocation to these dynamic channels will be critical for brands navigating future complexities, ensuring sustained ROI and market relevance in an increasingly digital first APAC.”
Magna’s Global Ad Forecast is based on an analysis of financial reports and data from local trade organisations. It is said to capture total net media owners’ ad revenues coming from the spending of national consumer brands, as well as from small, local, direct advertisers.
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No surprise here, archaic reporting and measurement (which is all just a guess based off a severely biased and undersized panel.) has left them in the dark ages. Linear tv and radio buys will be dead in 5 years.