2014 Annual: Our 2015 Predictions

Each year the Mumbrella team makes a number of predictions about the year ahead. Below you can finds some rather conservative predictions along with a couple of bold one (yes, we know we’re going out a limb on some of these). You can also see how we did on our 2014 predict (answer not great). 

1.I’m a Celebrity a surprise hit

The Big Bash League gives Ten a strong start to 2015, and this year the constant repetition of ads for I’m a Celebrity plus strategic leaks about who will be appearing give the show a debut audience of 1.4m, falling to 900,000 for the regular shows, but comfortably winning its timeslot for the struggling network.

Likelihood: 6/10

2. Nine and Fairfax merge

Last year was predicted to be the year for mergers and acquisitions, but this year will see the real activity in the market as laws are relaxed. Nine and Fairfax will formalise the relationship started with the Stan partnership by moving in together full time creating the Nine Fairfax Entertainment and News Co, specialising in current affairs and sports coverage across platforms.

Likelihood: 2/10

3. Hamish and Andy return tops Drive time but Today Network stations still struggle

Southern Cross Austereo is banking on the return of Hamish Blake and Andy Lee to the Drive show in July to bolster its beleaguered and newly re-named Today’s Hit network, and the pair deliver the ratings boost they hoped for for the slot, but their delay until the middle of the year means other shows already have the loyalty of listeners rusted on for 2015 and it doesn’t have the halo effect they were hoping for.

Likelihood: 7/10

4. Australian Cannes Lions Press entries plummet

There were a distinct drop in the number of entries in the print category at Spikes in Singapore in September, with entries down some 75 per cent on the year before. We’re willing to bet a similar phenomenon might also occur in the south of France this year.

Likelihood: 6/10

5. Telstra pitches for media and creative

The big agency pitch of 2015 sees Telstra look to streamline its agency provision under the stewardship of Jo Pollard as CMO and in the face of resurgent competition from Optus and Vodafone. Media comes down to a battle between OMD and UM, whilst creative sees The Monkeys and Whybin\TBWA battle it out for lead agency duties as the telco slims down its roster.

Likelihood: 5/10

6. Rupert Murdoch steps back from News Corp and hands reins to Lachlan

With print assets struggling and amid mounting pressure from activist shareholders Rupert Murdoch finally formally passes the reins for News Corp to his son Lachlan, who signals a new era by acquiring data-focussed assets for the company, putting more focus on the digital elements of the company. 

Likelihood: 3/10 

7. The return of Harold Mitchell to media as chairman of a media owner

Last year we (wrongly) predicted that Harold Mitchell would launch a new agency this year. That didn’t eventuate but Harold has been no shrinking violent as chairman of FreeTV and we wouldn’t be surprised if 2015 sees one of the networks reward with the chairmanship of one their boards? Southern Cross Austereo perhaps?

Likelihood: 3/10

8. M&C Saatchi launches media division

Having the biggest strategy department in Australia M&C Saatchi manages to persuade one of its major clients to streamline their servicing and hand them the media planning and buying element of the business. M&C acquires Slingshot Media to handle the transition and bolster its offering. 

Likelihood: 8/10

Mumbrella’s 2014 Predictions

1. News buys Ten – WRONG(ish)

It’s a conspiracy theory which has abounded for years. But 2014 finally signal the moment Rupert Murdoch gets his hands on Network Ten and rolls the troubled free-to-air broadcaster into his News Corp empire. The Liberal government will do what Labor were bullied out of and relax reach-rules, allowing the acquisition while Ten’s share price is in the gutter. Son Lachlan, currently chairman of Ten, will take the reins of the entire local operation, replacing Julian Clarke.

Likelihood: 7/10

2. INXS biggest TV hit – RIGHT

If there are two things Aussies love its rockers with big hair and nostalgia programming. Which is why Seven’s miniseries INXS: Never Tear us Apart, telling the tale of, ironically, the excesses which tore the band apart, will be the biggest drama of the year dominating its timeslot and all demos.

Likelihood: 8/10

3. Kyle and Jackie O come 3rd – WRONG

They’ve been rating royalty for longer than most of their teenage listeners can remember. But a move to a rebranded ARN station Kiis will see Kyle Sandilands and Jackie (O) Henderson slip behind their former 2DayFM home and Nova challengers into third spot. Kyle will also say something which will upset people who do not listen to the show.

Likelihood: 6/10

4. Harold starts agency- WRONG

No-one in the industry really believes Harold Mitchell has actually retired. But while he’s doing his best to rile Foxtel as chairman of Free TV he will not be able to launch another media company, so instead he will team up with son Stuart and create a new digital agency, specialising in media.

Likelihood: 6/10

5. Howcroft to agency – WRONG

The TV industry has many similarities to creative agency life, lots of characters, dramas and sensitive client relationships being played out in a precarious economic landscape. While Russel Howcroft has enjoyed his time at Ten, the call of the agency world will be too much, and he’ll pitch back up, probably at his first love George Patterson Y&R, in a senior role.

Likelihood: 5/10

6. Toyota to ditch TMS -WRONG

It’s been a long and fruitful relationship, but all good things must come to an end. The independent Toyota asked to set up shop 16-years-ago will finally lose it’s biggest client, as they move to an Aegis agency, probably Carat, to follow the global alignment with Dentsu and make the mother country happy.

Likelihood: 4/10

7. Publicis Mojo rolled into Leos – WRONG

While the Publicis-Omnicom merger will leave most agencies unaffected it will provide the perfect opportunity to bury the struggling Publicis Mojo agency into buoyant sister Leo Burnett, spinning off the Mojo name to represent the customer relations and call-centre part of the business.

Likelihood: 7/10