How the diversity debate has affected Exponential’s ability to pick the 2016 Oscar winner

After picking the Best Picture winner at the Oscars using big data analysis for the last three years Bryan Melmed says this year’s picks are clouded by the diversity debate.

The Big Short will win Best Picture at the Academy Awards (although this year our prediction could fall short).

Whilst the data behind Exponential’s profiles have predicted the Best Picture winner at the Oscars three years in a row (Birdman in 2015, 12 Years a Slave in 2014 and Argo in 2013) this year all bets are off.

We’ve never seen such muddled signals in the data, in part because the Oscars themselves have become embroiled in controversy. But the outcry over the lack of diversity in this year’s nominations illuminates how we make our predictions (and why it might be our last using this approach).